Macro Briefing: 7 May 2024

* Global economic growth at 10-month high in April: PMI survey
* America’s fiscal outlook is troubling, but largely ignored on campaign trail
* Sahm Indicator rises for 3rd month in April, closer to recession tipping point
* Renters’ expectations of owning home fall to record low: NY Fed survey
* US 10yr Treasury yield falls for 5th straight dat to lowest level since Dec:

The Employment Trends Index (ETI), a leading indicator for the jobs market, forecasts a slowing labor market. The indicator, compiled by The Conference Board, has been sliding since its peak in March 2022. “The ETI fell in April, a sign that employment growth could stall in the second half of 2024,” says Will Baltrus, associate Economist at The Conference Board, which publishes the data. “The ETI has been on a downward trajectory since its peak in March 2022, and this month signals a continuation of that trend. However, the Index remains historically elevated and is still above its prepandemic level, which suggests aggregate job losses are less likely than a slowdown in employment growth.”