Macro Briefing: 3 June 2024

* European Central Bank expected to announce rate cut this week
* Opec announces extension of oil-production cuts into next year
* Eurozone factory output close to stabilizing in May via PMI survey data
* China manufacturing activity surges in May, survey data show
* Chicago PMI plunges to 4-year low in May
* US PCE inflation held steady at 2.7% year-over-year pace in April
* US consumer spending and income growth slow in April:

The recent decline in US gasoline prices suggests that the trend will lend some support to consumer confidence. “Energy price fluctuations have continued to be a key driver of consumer confidence, particularly in the United States,” advises Haver Analytic. “That’s probably because broader gauges of inflation expectations – and thus cost-of-living challenges – appear to be heavily swayed by the price of oil.”