Macro Briefing: 9 August 2024

* JP Morgan lifts US recession odds to moderate 35% for this year
* US mortgage rates fall to lowest level in over a year
* US government will offer loan to S. Korean firm build solar plant in Georgia
* China inflation picks up, but remains low–just 0.5% vs. year-ago level
* US jobless claims fall more than expected, offering upbeat labor market news:

Fed funds futures pricing in roughly even odds that the central bank will cut interest rates by either 25 or 50 basis points at the upcoming Sep. FOMC meeting. For the next meeting on Nov. 7, the market is leaning into a second round of cuts.