Macro Briefing: 10 September 2024

The threat of a US government shutdown on Sep. 30 is in focus after House Republicans unveiled a spending plan that’s expected to be a non-starter with Democrats. Even if the GOP bill passes the House, it will likely fail in the Democratic-led Senate. The odds of that the House will approve the legislation, however, are looking shaky.
Consumer inflation expectations are “largely stable” in August, reports the New York Federal Reserve. The median one-year ahead inflation outlook is unchanged at 3.0%, according to the latest survey by the regional Fed bank.

US household debt rose to new record high in July, fueled by balances on credit cards, auto loans, and other sources of credit, the Federal Reserve reports. Total consumer debt increased $25.5 billion to yet another all-time peak of $5.1 trillion in July.
US Small Business Optimism Index fell in August, erasing all of July’s gain. “This is the 32nd consecutive month below the 50-year average,” reports NFIB.
China exports rose sharply in August, beating expectations by a wide margin. Exports rose 8.7% vs. the year-ago level in US dollar terms. Among the key drivers: exports of cars from China surged nearly 40% in August to 610,000 vehicles. Reuters reports: “China’s exports grew at their fastest pace in nearly 1-1/2 years in August, suggesting manufacturers are rushing out orders ahead of tariffs expected from a growing number of trade partners, while imports disappointed amid weak domestic demand.”