Macro Briefing: 19 December 2024

Treasury yields rise sharply after the Federal Reserve cuts its target rate by 1/4 point–the third straight cut. The US 10-year Treasury yield shot up after the announcement, ending at 4.52%, the highest since May.

US government shutdown risk rises after President-elect Donald Trump abruptly rejects a bipartisan spending plan hammered out in the House. “Republicans must GET SMART and TOUGH,” Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance said in a statement.

US housing starts fell to a four-month low in November, driven by a drop in the construction of multi-family units. The overall decline was softened by a rebound in starts of single-family houses, primarily in the storm-ravaged South. In an upbeat sign, building permits, a leading indicator for residential construction, increased 6.1%.

MIT spinout firm announces it will build the world’s first fusion power plant. Commonwealth Fusion Systems says the fusion power plant planned for Chesterfield County, Virginia will be operational by the early 2030s.

Business inflation expectations fell to 2.0% in December, according to the Atlanta Fed’s survey of firms. The current outlook is the lowest since 2020.

Economic growth for the US is expected to accelerate for 2024, based on TMC Research’s estimates. Using year-to-date numbers through the third quarter, combined with our nowcasting for Q4, points to a second straight year of improvement for the pace of GDP growth.

TMC Research expects real (inflation-adjusted) growth in the US to rise 4.0% in 2024 over the previous year, according to its year-end review and outlook. Using year-to-date numbers through the third quarter, combined with nowcasting for Q4, points to a second straight year of improvement for the pace of GDP growth. If correct, economic activity will mark the strongest calendar-year expansion since 2021, when the economy posted a dramatic but unsustainable rebound from the pandemic-induced recession in 2020.