Macro Briefing: 25 April 2025
US jobless claims edged higher last week, but remain low… Despite concerns for the economic outlook fueled by tariffs, this leading indicator for employment has yet to signal a warning for hiring…Companies are starting to issue warnings about the impact that tariffs could have on earnings… …
US jobless claims edged higher last week, but remain low. New filings for unemployment rose to 222,000 for the week through April 19, reflecting a stable labor market. Despite concerns for the economic outlook fueled by tariffs, this leading indicator for employment has yet to signal a warning for hiring.
Companies are starting to issue warnings about the impact that tariffs could have on earnings. Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo and LG on Thursday cut their forecasts and warned of price hikes on a range of everyday products.
Existing home sales in the US fell in March to the lowest level since 2009. Weighing on sales: higher mortgage rates and concerns about the economy.
US durable goods orders surged in March, driven by higher demand for commercial aircraft. Purchases for other items, by contrast, was muted.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s 3-month average fell in March, indicating economic activity that’s in line with the historical trend. The indicator remains far above a recession level (which is -0.7), but the latest reading confirms that growth has slowed recently.
Author: James Picerno