US consumer inflation expectations “remain elevated,” according to revised data for this month’s poll published by the Unviersity of Michigan. “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.” The update also shows consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, tumbling 8% from March.

Economists are split on the outlook for US recession risk, according to a recent survey of members of the National Association of Business Economics. “Half of the participants place the probability of recession in 2025 between 25% and 49%, while 37% place the odds at 50% or higher. This compares with 8% who placed the odds of recession in 2025 at 50% or higher just prior to the April 2nd tariff announcement.”

US Treasury Sec. Bessent said he doesn’t know whether President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have recently discussed tariffs or have begun informal negotiations on trade. Over the past week, Trump said his administration was talking with China about trade, although China said otherwise.

Huawei Technologies, one China’s largest tech firm, said it’s preparing to test its new AI processor, which the company hopes could replace some higher-end products of US chip giant Nvidia. Huawei has been on a US trade blacklist for several years and attracted attention in 2023 by producing a high-end smartphone in 2023 that rivals Western-made products.

China’s industrial profits rebounded in the first quarter, posting a 0.8% increase. The trade war with the US is expected to pressure profits in the coming months.

Container port operators and air freight managers reported sharp declines in goods transported from China as the trade war with the US intensifies. The primary route for China exports to the US — the Port of Los Angeles — projects that scheduled arrivals for the week starting May 4 to fall by a third vs. the year-ago level.

US consumer inflation expectations “remain elevated,” according to revised data for this month’s poll published by the Unviersity of Michigan. “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.” The update also shows consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, tumbling 8% from March.

Economists are split on the outlook for US recession risk, according to a recent survey of members of the National Association of Business Economics. “Half of the participants place the probability of recession in 2025 between 25% and 49%, while 37% place the odds at 50% or higher. This compares with 8% who placed the odds of recession in 2025 at 50% or higher just prior to the April 2nd tariff announcement.”

US Treasury Sec. Bessent said he doesn’t know whether President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have recently discussed tariffs or have begun informal negotiations on trade. Over the past week, Trump said his administration was talking with China about trade, although China said otherwise.

Huawei Technologies, one China’s largest tech firm, said it’s preparing to test its new AI processor, which the company hopes could replace some higher-end products of US chip giant Nvidia. Huawei has been on a US trade blacklist for several years and attracted attention in 2023 by producing a high-end smartphone in 2023 that rivals Western-made products.

China’s industrial profits rebounded in the first quarter, posting a 0.8% increase. The trade war with the US is expected to pressure profits in the coming months.

Container port operators and air freight managers reported sharp declines in goods transported from China as the trade war with the US intensifies. The primary route for China exports to the US — the Port of Los Angeles — projects that scheduled arrivals for the week starting May 4 to fall by a third vs. the year-ago level.