Macro Briefing: 9 May 2025

US jobless claims fell last week, printing at a relatively low level that downplays recesssion risk. “The previous week’s jump in claims was reversed in the week ended May 3, and there is little in the incoming data to challenge the Federal Reserve’s assessment that labor market conditions remain solid,” said Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics.

President Trump announced a US-UK trade deal on Thursday. Details of the agreement are still being finalized. One thing that hasn’t changed: a 10% tariff imposed on UK imports remains in place. Under the plan, the first 100,000 vehicles imported into the US by British automakers each year are subject to that 10% rate, and additional vehicles will face 25% rates, according to the White House.

China exports surge to Southeast Asian countries as US tariffs redirect shipments. Exports rose 8.1% last month in US dollar terms from a year earlier, beating Reuters’ poll estimates for a 1.9% rise.

Fed Governor Barr said tariffs will likely boost inflation later this year. “In my view, higher tariffs could lead to disruption to global supply chains and create persistent upward pressure on inflation,” he advised in prepared remarks for a speech on Friday.

Bitcoin rebounded above $102,000 for first time since late-January. Sentiment has turned bullish again, reportedly due in part to news that companies are adding crypto to their balance sheets.

US fiscal risk edged higher recently, but remains in a range that’s prevailed since the pandemic ended, according to analysis by TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager. The Fiscal Risk Index, which tracks ten indicators, edged up to the upper range in recent history, but one that’s still below the spike during the pandemic.