Macro Briefing: 6 June 2025

US jobless claims rose last week to the highest level since October, raising a possible warning flag for the labor market outlook. “Jobless claims continue to rise, but they are rising at a slow pace, so it’s a trend worth watching, but too soon to sound the alarm,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.

The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in April, according to government reports. The gap fell to a $61.6 billion deficit, a 56% decline from March.

Trump and President Xi spoke by phone on Thursday and agreed to revive trade talks. Trump, writing on social media, called the discussion a “very good phone call” that lasted about an hour and a half.

Investor demand is cooling for long-term debt sold by governments. “It’s a classic supply-and-demand mismatch problem, but on a global scale,” said Amanda Stitt, a fixed-income specialist at $1.6tn asset manager T Rowe Price. “The era of cheap, long-term funding is over, and now governments are jostling in a crowded room of sellers.”