Macro Briefing: 19 June 2025
US residential construction fell to a five-year low in May, the government reported in its monthly update of housing starts… US jobless claims ticked down last week, holding near highest level of the year… The four-week average of claims rose to 245,500, the highest since August 2023……
Israel-Iran conflict continues as Trump considers US involvement. The President said he was undecided on whether to give the order for a US strike in support of Israel’s ongoing attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets. “I may do it, I may not do it,” he told reporters at the White House on Wednesday.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and released new economic projections that hint that stagflation is a concern. “The summary forecasts that were published today imply that the FOMC sees a bit more stagflation than it did in March,” said Wells Fargo Chief Economist Jay Bryson.
US jobless claims ticked down last week, holding near highest level of the year. The four-week average of claims rose to 245,500, the highest since August 2023.
Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down in June, according to the Atlanta Fed’s survey of businesses. Firms’ outlook edged lower to 2.4%, on average.
US residential construction fell to a five-year low in May, the government reported in its monthly update of housing starts. “The overarching issue is the United States desperately needs more housing, especially for first-time buyers, and that’s not going to happen with this tepid level of new home construction,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
Author: James Picerno