Macro Briefing: 7 July 2025

US payrolls rose more than forecast in June, increasing 147,000 for the month. “The solid June jobs report confirms that the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut,” said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. For the 1-year trend, payrolls effectively held steady at a 1.15% pace of growth, in line with gains in recent months.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said the US will impose higher country-by-country tariff rates at the beginning of August, effectively delaying an earlier July 9 deadline set by President Trump. Bessent advised in a TV interview: “It’s not a new deadline. We are saying this is when it’s happening. If you want to speed things up, have at it. If you want to go back to the old rate, that’s your choice.”
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also suggested a new degree of flexibility in the tariff deadline — National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett in an interview yesterday said: “There are deadlines, and there are things that are close, and so maybe things will push back the dead, past the deadline. In the end, the president’s going to make that judgment.”

Israel launched strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. The strikes targeted three ports and a power plant in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

The European Union is set to learn today if President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on America’s largest trade partner. Economists predict that Trump’s 20% import tax on all EU-made products, if imposed as anounced in early April, will have repercussions for companies and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said that “the EU was very slow in coming to the table” but talks were making “very good progress.”

President Trump warned that he may impose an additional 10% tariff on countries that align with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS,” the bloc of developing countries currently meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy,” Trump advised in a social media post on Sunday evening.

US consumers say they’ll cut back on spending this summer as tariff worries weigh on the outlook, according to a new Yahoo Finance/Marist Poll. Roughly 80% of Americans surveyed expressed some level of concern that tariffs will impact their personal finances, which in turn is influencing spending plans.