Macro Briefing: 8 August 2025

US jobless claims rose last week, but remain in a middling range vs recent history. “The sideways drift in initial and continuing claims in recent months suggests that layoff activity is muted,” Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note. “The ‘no hire/no fire’ theme in the labor market remains firmly intact.”

President Trump announced he will nominate Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, to serve on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Miran will replacing Adriana Kugler, who resigned Friday. The nominee will serve out Kugler’s term, which expires Jan. 31, 2026.

President Trump is pushing to allow alternative assets to be held in US retirement accounts. He ordered regulators to look for ways to change rules that opened the door to investing in cryptocurrencies, private equity, property, gold and other non-traditional assets in in workplace retirement accounts, such as 401k accounts.

Trump signed executive order to address ‘politicized debanking’ at big banks. The action calls for federal bank regulators to investigate decisions made by financial institutions to deny access to certain customers.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is the new favorite in prediction markets for becoming the next chairman of the Fed. The odds in favor or Waller spiked higher at Kalshi after a Bloomberg news story reported that President Donald Trump’s advisors admire his willingness to set monetary policy based on forecasting vs. historical data.