Macro Briefing: 16 September 2025

NY Fed Manufacturing Index turns negative in September. The unexpected decline reverses gains in the previous two months and marks the biggest monthly setback since June. The pullback partly reflected significant downturns by new orders and shipments.

Appeals court allows Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook to keep her job ahead of a crucial interest-rate setting meeting that starts today. The DC Circuit Court of Appeals is unlikely to be the last word on the matter, but President Trump has only hours left to ask the Supreme Court to rule before the Fed meeting starts.

Senate confirms Trump’s pick for Fed Board. Stephen Miran will join the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors ahead of the central bank’s announcement on interest rates scheduled for tomorrow, Wed., Sep. 17.

Slowing jobs creation is a headwind for the US economy, economists advise via Morningstar.com. “The labor market is more vulnerable today than at any point in this expansion,” says Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. Pimco economist Tiffany Wilding, says “the economy is more vulnerable to any kind of negative shock.” Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics: “The tariffs are certainly hurting, but they’re not quite bad enough to get us to that recession.”

Gold trades at record high ahead of Fed meeting that’s expected to announce a rate cut. Bullion traded above $3,682 an ounce on Monday, after rising for four consecutive weeks.