US Q2 GDP Growth Expected Near Q1’s Increase

Economic activity is on track to expand close to the pace reported in the first quarter, based on the latest Q2 nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median estimate suggests growth will ease slightly from Q1.

Output is pegged to increase at a 1.8% real annualized rate for the April‑through‑June quarter. This median nowcast marks a modest downshift from the 2.1% increase in Q1. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release Q2 data on July 30.

Recent nowcast updates show Q2 growth running slightly below Q1’s pace, although today’s estimate improved a bit from the previous report’s 1.5% advance. on July 7.

Yesterday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book aligns with today’s modest nowcast estimate for the second quarter. “Economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in eleven of twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late May and June, while one District reported no change,” the report noted. “The pace of growth was quite close to that of last period, when activity expanded in ten Districts, was flat in one, and down in one.”

The Beige Book also reported that “Employment rose on balance, with five Districts showing modest, moderate, or solid gains in employment, and with seven Districts experiencing little to no change.”

A separate government release yesterday indicates labor‑market stability persisted last week as jobless claims edged lower. Initial unemployment filings fell 8,000 to 208,000 for the week ending July 11, the lowest since April and near recent cyclical lows.

Retail sales rose again in June, though at a slower pace than expected. The 0.2% monthly gain is the softest increase since January’s essentially flat reading.

“Despite challenges, consumers are still spending and the labor market shows no signs of cracking,” Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, wrote in a research note yesterday. “This type of data won’t move the Fed’s needle either way, but it underscores the ongoing resilience of the US economy.”

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