Macro Briefing: 1 July 2024

* Top Dems rule out replacing Biden on ticket
* Far right leads France’s first round of parliamentary elections
* China manufacturing sector contracts for second month in June
* After bitcoin ETF mania cools, investors wonder what’s next for crypto
* Key Fed metric shows inflation eased slightly in May:

IMF warns that the US fiscal deficit “is too large, creating a sustained upward trajectory for the public debt-GDP ratio.” The IMF staff advises, writing in its annual evaluation of the US economy: “The ongoing expansion of trade restrictions and insufficient progress in addressing the vulnerabilities highlighted by the 2023 bank failures both pose important downside risks.”