Macro Briefing: 12 March 2025
US job openings rebounded moderately in January… “Unfortunately, the report tells us nothing about how companies will respond to the threat of tariffs and rising uncertainty, and this could take several months to unfold,” says Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital…Pre…
US job openings rebounded moderately in January. The government reports 7.74 million available positions, signaling relative stability for hiring from US employers. The data, however, does not yet reflect the current headwinds blowing in the economy related to Trump policy shifts in recent weeks. “Unfortunately, the report tells us nothing about how companies will respond to the threat of tariffs and rising uncertainty, and this could take several months to unfold,” says Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital.
President Trump’s 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports take effect today. Meanwhile, Trump on Tuesday threatened to put 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada, but later decided to stay with the 25% rate after the province of Ontario suspended plans to put a surcharge on electricity sold to Michigan, Minnesota and New York.
Europe announced countermeasures to Trump’s tariffs. The European Union said its member states would place countermeasures worth about $28 billion of US goods that will be phased in from Apr. 1 through Apr. 13.
JP Morgan economist estimates a 40% chance of a US recession this year. “Where we stand now is with a heightened concern about the US economy,” said Bruce Kasman, the investment bank’s chief global economist.
The US stock market is close to a 10% decline from its high, based on the S&P 500 Index’s close yesterday. “We are in a situation where the pendulum has shifted and fear has taken over,” said Adam Sarhan, founder of 50 Park Investments. “A lot of this has to do with the ‘Trump trade’ being unwound, but also concerns about growth going forward, and also the R-word, which is recession.”
The US stock market drawdown is the deepest since the correction August, advises a note from TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager: “The historical record suggests that the current drawdown requires as long as 2-3 months to potentially recover the previous high, assuming that the current level marks the S&P 500’s trough.”
Author: James Picerno