Macro Briefing: 12 November 2024

US small business optimism edges up to three-month high in October, but remains far below pre-pandemic levels. “With the election over, small business owners will begin to feel less uncertain about future business conditions,” predicts NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Although optimism is on the rise on Main Street, small business owners are still facing unprecedented economic adversity.”

Bitcoin approaching $90,000. “Bitcoin is now in price discovery mode after breaking through all-time highs early last Wednesday morning when it was officially declared that Trump won the election,” says Mike Colonnese, an analyst at H.C. Wainwright. “Strong positive sentiment is likely to persist through the balance of 2024 and [we] see bitcoin prices potentially reaching the six-figure mark by the end of this year.”

Exxon Mobil’s chief executive says Trump should keep US in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. “It’s ironic that the major oil companies are not supportive of the ‘drill, baby, drill,’ strategy, nor are their shareholders,” observes Paul Sankey, an independent analyst. “They’ve been working very hard to lower their emissions, and the last thing they want is for all the rules and regulations to change again.”

The S&P 500 Index is on track to rise to 10,000 by end of decade, fueled by ‘animal spirits’, predicts Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni. The index closed just above 6,000 on Monday. If his outlook is correct, the US stock market will rise 67% by the 2029’s close. “We’re just seeing a more pro-business administration coming in that undoubtedly will cut taxes,” Yardeni tells Yahoo Finance. “And not only for corporations but also for individuals. Lots of various kinds of tax cuts have been discussed. And in addition to that, a lot of deregulation.”