Macro Briefing: 15 August 2025

US wholesale inflation accelerated in July, rising the most in three years. The data indicates that prices rose faster for producers than consumers. The implication: importers are absorbing the cost of tariffs rather than passing them on to customers. “It will only be a matter of time before producers pass their higher tariff-related costs onto the backs of inflation-weary consumers,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at fwdbonds, a financial markets research firm.

US jobless claims fell last week, holding at a relatively modest level vs. recent history. “Viewed in isolation, those (claims) figures would suggest that labor market conditions remain strong,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist of Wrightson ICAP. “However, we give more weight to the softer trend in the payroll series over the last three months, which obviously tells a different story.”

China’s economic growth slowed in July, with activity downshifting across the board. Retail sales and industrial production posted substantially softer growth rates last month.

The US government is considering buying a stake in Intel. The chip maker’s stock rose 4% in Thursday’s trading.

Japan’s stock market closes at record high after news that the economy posted better-than-expected second-quarter growth data. Surprisingly resilient exports and capital expenditure were key drivers of the Q2 expansion.

Slowing growth and rising federal debt cloud US economic outlook, advises TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company. “A long-term downshift in US economic growth has been unfolding for decades,” and the latest numbers show the trend persisting. Meantime, new data from the Treasury Department indicate that that the US government’s gross national debt topped $37 trillion, a new record high.