Macro Briefing: 15 November 2024

US jobless claims fell to a six-month low last week. “While many employment-related indicators point to a significant softening in labor market conditions this year, that change has not carried over to the unemployment insurance data thus far,” says Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP. An economist at RSM, Tuan Nguyen, writes: “The continued drop in new filings for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, should suggest a strong rebound in payroll gains this month, which would reaffirm that the disappointing October jobs report was a one-time shock.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says there’s no need to “hurry” to cut interest rates. “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” he said in remarks for a speech on Thursday. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”

Trump’s plans to impose 60% tariffs on China would reduce the country’s economic growth by roughly 1.5 percentage points a year after they’re enacted, estimates UBS. “The impact on trade would likely be much larger than the trade war 1.0” that the president-elect waged in his first term, says Daniel Yi Xu, an economics professor at Duke University.

Wholesale inflation in the US increased more than expected in October. The Producer Price Index, a benchmark of the average price changes for producers and manufacturers, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% for the past year, marking an pickup vs. September, when prices ticked up 0.1% for the month and rose 1.9% year over year.