Macro Briefing: 15 September 2025

The risk of a US recession ticked up in August, but remains well below a tipping point that signals a high probability of a downturn, according to a business-cycle index published by the Richmond Fed. The SOS Recession Indicator rose to 0.062 last month, which remains substantially under the 0.2 trigger point that equates with elevated recession risk.

Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook declared her Atlanta property as a “vacation home” a listing that appears to undercut the Trump administration’s allegations of mortgage fraud. Lawyers for Cook cited the newly released documents to a panel of judges as a reason to allow her to continue serving on the Fed.

China’s economic slowdown deepened in August, according to several indicators. Retail spending and factory output slowed, official reports revealed.

Home prices in China fell in August, extending a weak trend and weighing on economic growth. Out of 70 cities surveyed, 57 reported month-on-month declines, and 65 recorded year-on-year falls.

Penske Media Corporation has become the first major US publisher to sue Google over its AI summaries. “The owner of Rolling Stone, Billboard and Variety sued Google on Friday, alleging the technology giant’s AI summaries use its journalism without consent and reduce traffic to its websites,” CNN reports.

A simple test of adding gold and/or bitcoin to a stock and bond portfolio highlights key differences in risk and reward associated with these alternative assets, according to analysis by TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager. A backtest that adds bitcoin to a stock/bond mix raised performance sharply, but at a cost of dramatically higher portfolio risk. Gold, by contrast, does a better job of lowering portfolio risk, but only modestly lifts overall portfolio return.