Macro Briefing: 16 April 2025

The New York Fed Manufacturing Index continued to reflect contracting business conditions in April. Although the Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business conditions index rebounded in this month, it remained below zero at -8.1, which indicates contraction in the sector.

China’s economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter. The government reports that GDP increased 5.4% vs. the year-earlier level, moderately higher than forecast.

China says it’s open to trade talks with the US, but under certain conditions. Yahoo Finance reports: “Beijing wants the Trump administration to show more respect, including curbing disparaging remarks from officials. Additionally, China is seeking a more consistent US stance and action on issues like sanctions and Taiwan.”

The Trump administration plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China, reports The Wall Street Journal, citing “people with knowledge of the conversations.” The article advises: the White House seeks “to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. trading partners to limit their dealings with China.”

Nvidia says it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit due to new restrictions on the export of its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China. “This disclosure is a clear sign that Nvidia now has massive restrictions and hurdles in selling to China as the Trump Administration knows there is one chip and company fueling the AI Revolution and it’s Nvidia,” writes Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities.

Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML reports that order expectations fell short and that uncertainty from new US trade restrictions may affect demand for its critical chipmaking machines. ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said that tariffs are “creating a new uncertainty.”

US import prices slipped 0.1% in March, the first monthly decline since September. The year-on-year rate eased to 0.9% in March, the lowest since October.