Macro Briefing: 18 March 2024

* Fed will to keep rates higher for longer, economists advise in poll, but…
* BIS chief predicts rate cuts are still likely this year
* Another potential partial-government shutdown lurks, again, on Friday
* China reports firmer economic data in retail and industrial sectors, but…
* The ailing property market in China shows is still struggling
* Working in old age isn’t as effective as it seems for the retirement crisis
* US retail spending leveling off as consumers pull back:

The post-pandemic boom in US nominal GDP is “unprecedented,” reports Axios. “Over the past 14 quarters, since the global economy screeched to a halt in the face of the COVID pandemic, US gross domestic product — the value of all the goods and services produced within this country — has surged by an astonishing 40%.” The surge is “an unprecedented — and largely unheralded — economic miracle, one that nobody expected during the depths of the COVID recession.”