Macro Briefing: 19 August 2024

* Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium in focus this week for markets
* Goldman Sachs cuts odds of US recession to 20% after upbeat economic data
* Start-up business failures rise 60% in US vs year-ago level
* Gold trades at record high and analysts expect the rally to continue
* Trump’s plans for raising tariffs is a key uncertainty factor for markets
* US consumer sentiment “essentially unchanged” for fourth month in August:

As China’s economic boom cools, blowback risk is rising for countries that linked their economies to Beijing and its trade and lending policies, writes Michael Beckley, co-author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China. “Studies find that every one percent decline in Chinese GDP growth can slow its trading partners’ economies by nearly comparable amounts. A number of countries have seen their exports to China plunge.”