Macro Briefing: 20 June 2025

President Trump said he will he would decide within two weeks whether or not the US will become directly involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran. “Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Mr. Trump said in a statement read by the White House press secretary on Thursday. The price of Brent crude oil — a proxy for market sentiment regarding expectations for the Israel-Iran conflict — remains steady at the moment after running sharply higher in recent days.

Trump on Thursday resumed criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, calling him “destructive.” The President said “Too Late” Powell is costing the US “hundreds of billions of dollars” by not cutting rates. “We should be 2.5 Points lower, and save $BILLIONS on all of Biden’s Short Term Debt,” Trump wrote on social media.

Global wealth grew 4.6% in 2024, after a 4.2% increase in 2023, according to the Global Wealth Report, published by UBS. “The speed of growth was far from uniform, largely tilted towards North America, with the Americas overall accounting for the majority of the increase, with more than 11%.”

The US housing market remains sluggish despite being the arrival of the peak buying season, Yahoo Finance reports: “Housing contract activity slipped sharply in April, even though buyers had more inventory to choose from. Meanwhile, buyers and sellers are locked in something of a standoff: More sellers are listing their properties, but prices haven’t fallen much, and buyers are being picky.”

Companies have increased their holding of bitcoin, according the analysis by BitcoinTreasuries.net. Reviewing the data, the Financial Times reports: “Over the past year, the number of bitcoin held by companies has jumped nearly 170 per cent.”

Fund manager Todd Ahlsten says “the whole exceptionalism of corporate America thesis is still intact.” Speaking to Morningstar, the manager of Parnassus Core Equity advises: “Yes, there are politics around that. But look at the the fundamental innovation going on in the S&P 500, starting with Nvidia down to Amazon, Google, Mastercard, Visa, and John Deere. Adam Parker at Trivariate Research found that 40% of the market cap of the S&P 500 has 60% gross margins.”