Macro Briefing: 22 August 2024

* Fed minutes highlight a “likely” rate cut in September
* Fannie Mae economists lower expectations for 2024 home sales
* Business inflation expectations fall to 2.2% in August: Atlanta Fed survey
* Eurozone business activity rises at faster pace in August: PMI survey
* US payrolls growth revised down by 818,000 for year through March 2024:

A US recession probably did not start in July, based on the rolling 3-month average of coincident indicators for all 50 states. The underlying data for last month was published by the Philadelphia Fed on Wednesday (Aug. 21). The 3-month average, although rising recently, remains well below the threshold that usually aligns with the start of NBER-defined contractions. The indicator is one of several business-cycle benchmarks monitored by The US Business Cycle Research Report, a sister publication of CapitalSpectator.com.