Macro Briefing: 24 February 2025

US economic activity “falters and payrolls decline in February, as optimism slumps and costs rise,” according to the latest update of the US PMI Composite Output Index, a survey-based GDP proxy. This month’s initial estimate for the index is 50.4, a 17-month low that’s just slightly above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

Existing-home sales fell 4.9% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million. On a brighter note, sales rose again vs. the year-ago level, increasing 2.0% from one year ago, the fourth straight monthly year-over-year increase.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate reported a 71% surge of operating earnings in 2024’s fourth quarter. The increase was led by strong results for insurance underwriting and investment income. The company also reported a rise in cash holdings to a hefty $334.2 billion.

Nearly half of US consumer spending relies on wealthy Americans. Households making about $250,000 a year or more now account for 49.7% of all spending, a record high since 1989, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Worries about future inflation weighed on consumer sentiment in February. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell nearly 10% from January, “in large part due to fears that tariff-induced price increases are imminent,” says the surveys of consumers director.