Macro Briefing: 30 September 2025

US pending home sales rose to a 5-month high in August. “Lower mortgage rates are enabling more home buyers to go under contract,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at National Association of Realtors. “In the Midwest, low mortgage rates combined with high levels of affordability are attracting more buyers compared to other regions.”

A US government shutdown is just hours away. Barring a last-minute deal between Democrats and Republicans, funding for the US government end at midnight. The two sides remain far apart on negotiating their priorities after a meeting in the White House yesterday between the President and Congressional leaders failed to bridge the differences.

Sen. Schumer is floating a shutdown fix that would reopen the government for seven to 10 days — if a shutdown is in fact triggered on Oct. 1, Axios reports: “Schumer’s Plan B anticipates a government shutdown. He and Senate Democrats are also starting to think about how to get out of one.”

Trump announced a new 10% tariff on lumber and a 25% tariff on furniture and cabinets. The import levies could potentially raise costs to homebuilding and furnishing, which have increased sharply in recent months.

Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, but at a slower pace, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, eased in August and indicates below-average output growth.

Gold surges ahead of a possible US government shutdown. The precious metal to nearly $3829 on Monday, a record high: