Macro Briefing: 31 May 2024
3%:The US equity market’s implied real (inflation-adjusted) excess return forecast relative to bonds for the decade ahead is near the lowest level in over seven decades, based on analysis by TMC Research, a new division of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth management firm… Using data published …
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The US equity market’s implied real (inflation-adjusted) excess return forecast relative to bonds for the decade ahead is near the lowest level in over seven decades, based on analysis by TMC Research, a new division of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth management firm. Using data published by Yale University’s Robert Shiller, a regression model that compares the real excess CAPE yield against the real excess 10-year S&P 500 return suggests that the US stock market will earn a relatively modest premium over its equivalent for US bonds in the decade ahead. The report is authored by the editor of CapitalSpectator.com.
Author: James Picerno