Macro Briefing: 5 August 2025

US factory orders fell sharply in June. Orders have now fallen in two of the past three months. New orders contracted 4.8% from May. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 0.4%.

The global value of mergers and acquisitions increased to $2.6 trillion so far in 2025 through July — the highest year-to-date increase since 2021. A surge in AI deals is a key factor.

The integrity of the Bureal of Labor Statistics is in focus as President Trump prepares to name a new head of the agency after he fired its chief last week. “We rely on BLS to do a lot of stuff, and we don’t give it the resources to do that stuff,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute. “Whatever the circumstances, it’s imperative the president nominate someone perceived to be independent of him and the White House.”

Republicans on Capitol Hill are anxious on the economic outlook after the latest jobs report highlighted a slowdown in hiring. “It definitely is indicative of a weakened economy, an economy that’s not acting in a robust fashion. I’ve all along felt like there’s a lag between tariffs and actual economic downturn,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

More than 3,000 Boeing defense workers strike after rejecting a contract offered by the company’s management. The strike is the work group’s first since 1996.

Majority of Americans are stressed about grocery costs, a new poll finds. Roughly half of all Americans say the cost of groceries is a “major” source of stress in their life and 33% say it’s a “minor” source of stress, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Hints of stagflation risk muddy the outlook for the Fed’s decision on interest rates, reports TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager. A softer-than-expected payrolls report for July suggests the labor market is slowing. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge continued to edge higher in June. “Although the modestly firmer trend for inflation is still middling relative to recent history, the back-to-back increases may be a factor in persuading the central bank to again forgo a cut in interest rates at the next policy meeting on Sep. 17.”