Macro Briefing: 7 May 2025

The US slide in exports this year has expanded to to most American ports, according to trade tracker Vizion. The consultancy analyzed US export container bookings for the 5-week period before President Donald Trump’s tariffs began and the 5 weeks after the tariffs took effect. “We haven’t seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion. “That means goods expected to arrive in the next six to eight weeks simply won’t. With tariffs driving costs higher, small businesses are pausing orders. Products that once moved reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions.”

After India strikes Pakistan following Kashmir attack, the risk of escalation rise for the two nuclear-armed countries. India is bracing for a response. “Pakistan has every right to give a robust response to this act of war imposed by India, and a strong response is indeed being given,” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said after the strikes from India.

US officials will meet with Chinese delegation for trade talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet with their counterparts in Geneva this weekend. The talks will mark the first major meeting between the two nations since President Donald Trump launched a trade war with high tariffs on imports.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in today’s policy announcement. Although inflation may heat up and economic growth could slow due to tariffs, “[Fed Chairman] Powell is not going to do anything,” predicted Jeremy Siegel, emeritus professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Fed funds futures agree — this market is pricing in high odds that the central bank will leave its target rate unchanged today.

US imports from China in the first quarter of this year fell to the lowest level in over 20 years. President Trump’s decision in early April to sharply raise US tariffs on China has only started to affect supply chains.