Macro Briefing: 9 October 2024

Florida residents fled the Tampa Bay region ahead of Hurricane Milton, which is expected to make landfall tonight. The storm “poses a major threat to life and property as it hammers the state with destructive storm surge, devastating wind damage, potentially catastrophic flooding rainfall and several tornadoes,” the Weather Channel warns. Expected damages are projected to reach $175 billion, according to leading Wall Street analysts.
US trade deficit narrowed to smallest gap in five month in August. Exports increased 2%, the most since February, while imports fell 0.9%.

The Dept. of Justice is considering a breakup of Google. DoJ advises that antitrust remedies needed to “prevent and restrain monopoly maintenance could include contract requirements and prohibitions; non-discrimination product requirements; data and interoperability requirements; and structural requirements,” the department said in a filing.
US job market is cooling but remains resilient, says Fed Governor Adriana Kugler. “The lower unemployment that we saw in Friday’s jobs report is very welcome. We don’t want a drastic slowdown in the labor market.”
China Finance Minister plans press briefing to outline fiscal policy for stimulating the economy. “It’s quite unlikely that the fiscal headline number is going to be huge,” says Jiang Liangqing, managing director at Zhuhai Greenbamboo Private Fund Management, citing the risks of debt-fueled spending binges. “There’s a ceiling to how strong fiscal measures can be before they bring an adverse effect.”
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates US GDP rose by a strong 3.2% in Q3, slightly faster than the 3.0% increase in Q2. The government is scheduled to publish the initial Q3 data on Oct. 30.