Markets Confident That Rate Cuts Will Start In September

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Meanwhile, a Fed funds model I developed for TMC Research also points to a lower target rate... Using data through July 8, this model estimated the optimal target rate at roughly 4... Fed funds futures are now pricing in a high probability (90%-plus) that the central bank will start cutting rates at the Sep... Markets price in high odds that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest r...

Macro Briefing: 15 July 2024

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* How might Trumponomics influence the US economy? * China’s economy slows in Q2 to softest annual pace in five quarters * Higher interest rates take a toll on earnings at big banks * What’s the source of portfolio alpha? Behavioral risk a key factor * Kuwait announces discovery of “gigantic oil field” * US consumer sentiment drops for second month in July to 8-month low:US 10-year Trea...

Book Bits: 13 July 2024

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● Siliconned: How the tech industry solves fake problems, hoards idle workers, and makes doomed bets with other people’s money Emmanuel Maggiori Essay by author via his website As we discussed in another post, venture capital firms manage pots of money, called funds, which they invest in start-ups... After the first two years passed, the reported performance dropped dramatically and remained ...

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 12 July 2024

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The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs...Yesterday’s sharp decline in the 10-year yield implies that the fair-value estimate’s downward pull on the market rate remains intact... Following Thursday’s news that US consumer inflation’s 1-year trend fell to 3...0% in June, the lowest in more than three years, the 10-year rate dropped to 4... Meanwhile, the policy-sensitive 2-yea...

Macro Briefing: 12 July 2024

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* Futures estimate of first rate cut on Sep. 18 rises to 90%-plus probability * Rate cuts may be appropriate, says San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly * Jobless claims in US fell to a 6-week low last week * US consumer inflation’ 1-year trend falls to 3.0% in June–lowest in over 3 years * US 10yr Treasury yield drops to 4.22%, lowest close since March:China’s trade surplus surges to a r...

Using Agents for Amazon Bedrock to interactively generate infrastructure as code

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In the diverse toolkit available for deploying cloud infrastructure, Agents for Amazon Bedrock offers a practical and innovative option for teams looking to enhance their infrastructure as code (IaC) processes... Agents for Amazon Bedrock automates the prompt engineering and orchestration of user-requested tasks... This solution shows how Amazon Bedrock agents can be configured to accept cloud ar...

Improve RAG accuracy with fine-tuned embedding models on Amazon SageMaker

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Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) is a popular paradigm that provides additional knowledge to large language models (LLMs) from an external source of data that wasn’t present in their training corpus... Challenges in RAG accuracy Pre-trained embedding models are typically trained on large, general-purpose datasets like Wikipedia or web-crawl data... While these models capture a broad ran...