US GDP Nowcast Reflects Slow Growth For Upcoming Q2 Report

US economic activity is on track to remain slow in this month’s second-quarter GDP report. The expansion is expected to continue via the government’s data, but today’s revised nowcast for Q2 suggests that output will remain more or less comparable to Q1’s modest increase, based on the median estimate for a set of projections compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

The economy is projected to post a 1.6% increase in the April-through-June period, today’s revised data indicate. If correct, the rise will mark a slightly faster expansion compared with Q1’s 1.4% advance. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish its first round of Q2 data on July 25.

The current median 1.6% nowcast marks a downshift from the previous update. The June 7 estimate anticipated a 1.9% rise in Q2 GDP.

Today’s estimate suggests that the US recession risk is still low. A suite of indicators in the current issue of The US Business Cycle Risk Report (published by CapitalSpectator.com) also reflect low recession risk at the moment. For example, the newsletter’s Composite Recession Probability Index (CRPI) estimates a 9% probability that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent.

Another set of indicators in the newsletter project that while economic activity has slowed recently, there are signs that slow/sluggish growth may be stabilizing. Nonetheless, the economy is vulnerable in the second half of the year, but for the moment a modest expansion continues and looks set to continue.

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